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GE

GOLDEN ENTERTAINMENT, INC. (GDEN)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue was $160.8M with net income of $2.5M and diluted EPS of $0.09; Adjusted EBITDA was $37.6M. Year-over-year comps were affected by the $69.7M gain on sale booked in Q1 2024, masking underlying operational resilience .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue modestly missed ($160.8M actual vs $163.6M estimate), but normalized “Primary EPS” beat ($0.17* actual vs $0.12* estimate); EBITDA missed on an unadjusted basis ($33.5M* actual vs $37.2M* estimate). Adjusted EBITDA reported by GDEN was $37.6M, close to consensus but not the same measure .
  • Management highlighted improving near-term trends (April hotel revenue up; May pacing up 6 points in occupancy; June strong) and reiterated priority for buybacks and dividends given valuation dislocation and low net leverage (~2.4x) .
  • Capital return remained active: $7.6M repurchases in Q1 (273,945 shares at $27.79) and quarterly dividend of $0.25 declared, with $91.8M authorization remaining and $225.0M revolver availability to stay opportunistic .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Locals casinos delivered margin discipline: EBITDA margins held at 46% for the second straight quarter, helped by payroll efficiencies, streamlined menus, and lower utilities, and April showed increasing strength .
  • STRAT near-term trends improved: April hotel revenue up on higher occupancy and rate; May occupancy pacing up 6 points; June strong. OTA mix is ~65% and trending down toward a 50% target, aided by more direct bookings and better casino marketing integration .
  • Capital allocation conviction: “There is no better use for our capital than repurchasing our own equity at these levels,” with buybacks and dividends supported by low net leverage and ample liquidity .

What Went Wrong

  • Consolidated revenue declined year-over-year to $160.8M (from $174.0M), and Adjusted EBITDA fell to $37.6M (from $41.0M), reflecting a tougher comp and the absence of last year’s Super Bowl uplift at STRAT and prior-year divested distributed gaming .
  • STRAT headwinds: occupancy down 5% for the quarter and 13% in February; management quantified a ~$3M EBITDA headwind versus last year’s Super Bowl period .
  • Taverns faced heightened competitive promotions from smaller private operators, pressuring performance near-term, though management views this as unsustainable and maintained a disciplined reinvestment strategy .

Financial Results

Consolidated Results (YoY comparison)

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$174.0 $160.8
Net Income ($USD Millions)$42.0 $2.5
Diluted EPS ($USD)$1.37 $0.09
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$41.0 $37.6

Sequential Trend (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$161.2 $164.2 $160.8
Net Income ($USD Millions)$5.2 $3.0 $2.5
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.18 $0.10 $0.09
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$34.0 $39.2 $37.6

Results vs S&P Global Consensus (Q1 2025)

MetricConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$163.6*$160.8
Primary EPS (Normalized) ($USD)$0.12*$0.17*
EBITDA ($USD Millions, non-adjusted)$37.2*$33.5*

Values with asterisks are retrieved from S&P Global.

  • Significant items: Revenue miss; EBITDA miss on an unadjusted basis; normalized EPS beat. Adjusted EBITDA as reported was $37.6M, which differs from the EBITDA metric used in consensus .

Segment Breakdown

SegmentRevenue Q1 2024 ($USD Millions)Revenue Q1 2025 ($USD Millions)Adj. EBITDA Q1 2024 ($USD Millions)Adj. EBITDA Q1 2025 ($USD Millions)
Nevada Casino Resorts$101.0 $94.2 $26.9 $24.8
Nevada Locals Casinos$39.0 $38.8 $17.5 $17.9
Nevada Taverns$27.8 $27.5 $7.6 $7.3
Corporate & Other$0.2 $0.3 $(11.5) $(12.4)
Distributed Gaming (Divested)$6.0 — $0.5 —
Total Continuing Ops$168.0 $160.8 $40.5 $37.6

KPIs and Balance Sheet (oldest → newest)

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Share Repurchases (shares/$)815,116 / $25.8M 1.1M / $36.2M 273,945 / $7.6M
Quarterly Dividend Declared ($/share)$0.25 (pay Jan 7, 2025) $0.25 (pay Apr 2, 2025) $0.25 (pay Jul 9, 2025)
Total Debt (Principal, $USD Millions)$399.0 $417.6 $411.3
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Millions)$68.6 $57.7 $50.5
Revolver Availability ($USD Millions)$240.0 $220.0 $225.0
STRAT Occupancy (YoY change)n/an/aDown 5% (Feb down 13%)
Locals Casinos EBITDA Margin (%)n/a46% 46%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
DividendQ1 2025Recurring $0.25/share (continued from prior quarters) $0.25/share; payable Jul 9, 2025; record Jun 25, 2025 Maintained
Share Repurchase2025Authorization increased to $100M in Q3 2024 (availability $131.4M then) $91.8M remaining; repurchased $7.6M in Q1 Utilized; remaining updated
Maintenance CapEx2025n/a~$30–$35M run-rate; plus 2 taverns at ~$3M each New disclosure
M&A Strategy2025Evaluating opportunities; focus on buybacks Prioritizing buybacks given valuation; limited M&A near-term Reiterated stance
Tariff Exposure2025n/aLimited exposure; linens sourcing shifted to India/Pakistan New disclosure

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Capital Return (Buybacks/Dividends)Authorization increased by $100M; recurring $0.25 dividend $36.2M repurchased in Q4; $0.25 dividend maintained Continued buybacks ($7.6M) and dividend; “no better use” than repurchases Sustained, opportunistic
STRAT Occupancy/Raten/an/aQ1 occupancy down 5% (Feb -13%); April revenue up; May occupancy +6 pts; June strong Improving into Q2
OTA Mix / Direct Bookingsn/an/aOTA ~65% and trending down; target ~50% via direct/marketing Favorable shift
Taverns Competitive Activityn/an/aElevated promos from small operators; discipline maintained; sequential EBITDA up Near-term headwind; manageable
Tariffs/Macro Procurementn/an/aInsulated; sourcing shifted away from Asia; limited tariff exposure Risk mitigated
New Amenities/Third-Party Rev Sharen/an/aNational F&B concept signed (opening late 2025/early 2026); Atomic Golf rev share ramping Incremental drivers

Management Commentary

  • “Our focus on customer experience and operational efficiencies allowed us to generate strong financial performance despite uncertain macroeconomic conditions. Our business remains resilient and we intend to continue to opportunistically repurchase our common stock under our current buyback authorization.” — Blake Sartini, CEO .
  • “Currently, we are not seeing the dislocation in our business that seems to be reflected in our public valuation.” — Charles Protell, President & CFO .
  • “Our low net leverage at 2.4x EBITDA and liquidity profile will enable us to withstand any potential impact to our business from the macro environment and allow us to continue to reinvest in our own assets, pay dividends and opportunistically acquire more of our own stock.” — Charles Protell .

Q&A Highlights

  • STRAT bookings and rate: Booking window remains short; strong April/May/June; OTA mix ~65% trending lower via direct channels and casino marketing; focus needed on midweek compression to lift rates .
  • M&A vs buybacks: Value dislocation and rates dampen M&A; company prefers buying its own EBITDA at ≤7x via repurchases; tender unlikely near-term but buybacks remain aggressive given liquidity .
  • Taverns competitive dynamics: Smaller private operators increasing promotions; management views behavior as unsustainable and is sticking to disciplined reinvestment; new taverns’ performance improving .
  • Laughlin and macro tailwinds: Lower gas prices aid discretionary spend; focus on smaller, profitable concerts and weekend promotions; market share leadership in Laughlin continues .
  • CapEx and tariff exposure: Maintenance CapEx $30–$35M; two taverns planned ($3M each); limited tariff exposure with sourcing shifted to India/Pakistan .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 versus S&P Global consensus: Revenue missed modestly ($160.8M actual vs $163.6M* estimate), normalized Primary EPS beat ($0.17* actual vs $0.12* estimate), and EBITDA missed on a non-adjusted basis ($33.5M* actual vs $37.2* estimate). Adjusted EBITDA reported was $37.6M, a company-specific non-GAAP metric differing from consensus EBITDA .
    Values with asterisks are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term operating momentum at STRAT is improving (April revenue up; May occupancy +6 points; June strong), positioning Q2 better than last year despite Q1’s Super Bowl comp headwind .
  • Locals casinos’ 46% EBITDA margins for the second straight quarter underscore durable cost discipline and limited macro impact on the loyal local customer base .
  • Capital return remains central: $7.6M buybacks in Q1, $0.25 dividend declared, and $91.8M authorization remaining, supported by $225.0M revolver availability and ~2.4x net leverage .
  • Consensus comparison indicates mixed signals: normalized EPS beat, but revenue and EBITDA (non-adjusted) missed; GDEN’s Adjusted EBITDA was $37.6M, highlighting the importance of metric definitions in assessing performance .
  • Strategic catalysts include OTA mix shifting toward direct, new nationally recognized F&B concept, and Atomic Golf revenue share ramp adjacent to STRAT, which should aid rate/yield and non-gaming revenue over time .
  • Taverns face transitory competition from smaller operators; management expects sustainability issues for competitors and continues disciplined reinvestment, with two new taverns opening this year .
  • With M&A less attractive amid valuation dislocation and rates, opportunistic repurchases and targeted in-asset investments likely continue to drive shareholder value .